# Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 57% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 23:07:53 GMT. 24h change +6.0pp, 24h volume $272.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-okc-lal-2026-05-11-spread-away-10pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-okc-lal-2026-05-11-spread-away-10pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T23:07:53.635Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **57¢** (57%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +6.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $272.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $273.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $160.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 11 at 10:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 11 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lakers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Lakers".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 3h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x3450…6793` — 41,874.816 shares
- `0x163e…dc5b` — 39,193.305 shares
- `0x3dfb…abaf` — 33,332.86 shares
- `0xbd14…d62a` — 9,260.842 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 6,627.24 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 23,136.388 shares
- `0x33fb…6201` — 20,368.085 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 14,225.999 shares
- `0xc787…64e8` — 13,333 shares
- `0x9267…0f9a` — 13,073.393 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 45 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T04:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T23:07:05.000Z |
| Range | 51¢ → 59¢ |
| Net change | +8.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-okc-lal-2026-05-11-spread-away-10pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-10.5) — 57% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T23:07:53.635Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-okc-lal-2026-05-11-spread-away-10pt5.
```

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