# Thunder vs. Lakers

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 83% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 18:43:35 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $526.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-okc-lal-2026-05-11
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-okc-lal-2026-05-11
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T18:43:35.838Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **83¢** (83%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $526.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $599.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.3M |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 11 at 10:30PM ET:
> If the Thunder win, the market will resolve to "Thunder".
> If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Expires in 8h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfc25…1f7f` — 99,999.019 shares
- `0xcd66…664f` — 50,000 shares
- `0x5375…aeea` — 31,380 shares
- `0xd106…c79c` — 23,743.854 shares
- `0x6165…db3c` — 20,365.854 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x84cf…2f63` — 56,691.35 shares
- `0x3b4a…8060` — 44,999.601 shares
- `0x5523…51e9` — 35,000.001 shares
- `0x27cb…169e` — 23,594.941 shares
- `0xb6be…fcfe` — 22,221.994 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 159 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T05:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T18:42:06.000Z |
| Range | 65¢ → 83¢ |
| Net change | +16.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-okc-lal-2026-05-11` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Thunder vs. Lakers — 83% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T18:43:35.838Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-okc-lal-2026-05-11.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*