# Thunder vs. Spurs

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 45% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 19:29:18 GMT. 24h change -3.0pp, 24h volume $152.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-okc-sas-2026-05-22
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-okc-sas-2026-05-22
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T19:29:18.964Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **45¢** (45%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $152.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $170.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $402.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 22 at 8:30PM ET:
> If the Thunder win, the market will resolve to "Thunder".
> If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Expires in 29h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xd106…c79c` — 49,715.093 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 47,566.68 shares
- `0xbddf…c684` — 29,546.877 shares
- `0x498c…42bf` — 15,000 shares
- `0x339a…1eae` — 9,508.77 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x84cf…2f63` — 23,033.38 shares
- `0x82ff…f0c4` — 21,160.78 shares
- `0x184f…389e` — 17,499.963 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 17,286.09 shares
- `0x92fe…99bd` — 14,999.525 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 94 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T12:00:16.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T08:58:05.000Z |
| Range | 44¢ → 55¢ |
| Net change | -2.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-okc-sas-2026-05-22` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Thunder vs. Spurs — 45% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T19:29:18.964Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-okc-sas-2026-05-22.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*