# Spread: Spurs (-2.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 52% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 00:42:43 GMT. 24h change +4.0pp, 24h volume $188.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-okc-sas-2026-05-24-spread-home-2pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-okc-sas-2026-05-24-spread-home-2pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T00:42:43.370Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **52¢** (52%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +4.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $188.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $188.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.5M |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 24 at 8:00 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Spurs" if the Spurs win the game by 3 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Thunder". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Thunder".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 51%): Probability moved up 4.0pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4924…3782` — 407,386.2 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 160,157.9 shares
- `0xd202…8973` — 56,245 shares
- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 55,466.751 shares
- `0x0bf8…03b2` — 21,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6211…b89e` — 520,834.204 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 141,626.943 shares
- `0x0549…c052` — 56,063.509 shares
- `0x3dfb…abaf` — 55,554.351 shares
- `0x6ade…f5b0` — 50,776.88 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 27 |
| Window start | 2026-05-23T20:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T21:15:03.000Z |
| Range | 48¢ → 52¢ |
| Net change | +4.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-okc-sas-2026-05-24-spread-home-2pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Spurs (-2.5) — 52% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T00:42:43.370Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-okc-sas-2026-05-24-spread-home-2pt5.
```

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