# Spread: Pistons (-8.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 51% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 12:58:08 GMT. 24h change -2.0pp, 24h volume $127.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-orl-det-2026-05-03-spread-home-8pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-orl-det-2026-05-03-spread-home-8pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T12:58:08.832Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **51¢** (51%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $127.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $127.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $163.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 3 at 12:00 AM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Pistons" if the Pistons win the game by 9 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Magic". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Magic".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa710…23c4` — 75,808.03 shares
- `0x0bf8…03b2` — 37,129.235 shares
- `0x2302…d6d2` — 3,443.353 shares
- `0xd100…853d` — 1,907.02 shares
- `0x8180…f4da` — 1,837.052 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x8d5d…191d` — 17,429.7 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 14,634 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 11,473.383 shares
- `0x1ac5…cd3d` — 9,084 shares
- `0xb177…1914` — 6,022 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 35 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T03:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T12:56:04.000Z |
| Range | 49¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | -1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-orl-det-2026-05-03-spread-home-8pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Pistons (-8.5) — 51% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T12:58:08.832Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-orl-det-2026-05-03-spread-home-8pt5.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*