# Spread: Pistons (-9.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 98% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 22:15:42 GMT. 24h change +52.5pp, 24h volume $242.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-orl-det-2026-05-03-spread-home-9pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-orl-det-2026-05-03-spread-home-9pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T22:15:42.961Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **98¢** (98%) |
| Δ 1h | +33.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +52.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $242.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $244.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $14.7K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 3 at 12:00 AM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Pistons" if the Pistons win the game by 10 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Magic". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Magic".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xb652…2db4` — 50,823.33 shares
- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 37,925.746 shares
- `0x4924…3782` — 18,693.93 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 12,271.905 shares
- `0x1d2e…896d` — 7,987.494 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 58,517.621 shares
- `0xddd5…ec9e` — 20,000 shares
- `0x0eb7…1f17` — 16,648.67 shares
- `0xc0ff…9953` — 13,983.964 shares
- `0xafe4…f3f7` — 13,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 44 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T03:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T22:00:09.000Z |
| Range | 39¢ → 95¢ |
| Net change | +47.6pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-orl-det-2026-05-03-spread-home-9pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Pistons (-9.5) — 98% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T22:15:42.961Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-orl-det-2026-05-03-spread-home-9pt5.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*