# Magic vs. Pistons

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 27% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:05:19 GMT. 24h change -16.5pp, 24h volume $214.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-orl-det-2026-05-03
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-orl-det-2026-05-03
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:05:19.496Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **27¢** (27%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -16.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $214.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $216.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $154.9K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 3 at 12:00AM ET:
> If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic".
> If the Pistons win, the market will resolve to "Pistons".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Expires in 7h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc8ec…e8f1` — 113,603.582 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 5,331 shares
- `0x8000…3a21` — 5,000 shares
- `0xe907…cff6` — 2,699.919 shares
- `0xcaf9…c81b` — 2,500 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5523…51e9` — 29,000.002 shares
- `0x3eeb…c387` — 17,190.928 shares
- `0x6d3c…d294` — 12,499.991 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 9,999.925 shares
- `0xd106…c79c` — 9,193.886 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 137 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T05:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:04:07.000Z |
| Range | 24¢ → 52¢ |
| Net change | -25.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-orl-det-2026-05-03` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Magic vs. Pistons — 27% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:05:19.496Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-orl-det-2026-05-03.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*