# Spread: Celtics (-4.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 29% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 01:58:38 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $240.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-phi-bos-2026-05-02-spread-home-4pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-phi-bos-2026-05-02-spread-home-4pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 2, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T01:58:38.797Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **29¢** (29%) |
| Δ 1h | -7.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $240.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $240.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $7.9K |
| Spread | 29.90pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 2, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 2 at 7:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Celtics" if the Celtics win the game by 5 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "76ers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "76ers".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 55%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1333…e463` — 84,999.889 shares
- `0x59e5…7a2b` — 39,272.245 shares
- `0x0eb7…1f17` — 36,639.024 shares
- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 24,486.218 shares
- `0xf668…5c69` — 19,998.713 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa8e0…ad50` — 43,139.707 shares
- `0x639c…31e2` — 20,408.163 shares
- `0xc94a…9401` — 18,482.78 shares
- `0x8d5d…191d` — 11,449.734 shares
- `0xb3cf…0ebd` — 11,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 4 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T23:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T01:58:04.000Z |
| Range | 14¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -26.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-phi-bos-2026-05-02-spread-home-4pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Celtics (-4.5) — 29% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T01:58:38.797Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-phi-bos-2026-05-02-spread-home-4pt5.
```

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