# Spread: Celtics (-8.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 45% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:06:22 GMT. 24h change -2.0pp, 24h volume $753.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-phi-bos-2026-05-02-spread-home-8pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-phi-bos-2026-05-02-spread-home-8pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 2, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:06:22.880Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **45¢** (45%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $753.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $754.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $231.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 2, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 2 at 12:00 AM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Celtics" if the Celtics win the game by 9 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "76ers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "76ers".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **divergence** (confidence 62%): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +2.0pp vs. 24h -2.0pp.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 327,468.377 shares
- `0xa2cc…0cbc` — 169,316.088 shares
- `0xe7a2…ae70` — 20,399.966 shares
- `0xfbf3…b218` — 16,736.751 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 15,243.968 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 353,000 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 117,969.76 shares
- `0xdd92…6b2a` — 40,000 shares
- `0x32cc…68b3` — 30,000 shares
- `0xc181…6e97` — 14,298.246 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 41 |
| Window start | 2026-05-01T05:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:05:04.000Z |
| Range | 28¢ → 52¢ |
| Net change | -6.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-phi-bos-2026-05-02-spread-home-8pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Celtics (-8.5) — 45% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:06:22.880Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-phi-bos-2026-05-02-spread-home-8pt5.
```

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