# NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers 

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 94% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 20:28:17 GMT. 24h change +0.5pp, 24h volume $200.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-playoffs-who-will-win-series-thunder-vs-lakers
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-playoffs-who-will-win-series-thunder-vs-lakers
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T20:28:17.812Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **94¢** (94%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $200.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $343.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $110.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Thunder” if the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Playoffs Conference Semifinals series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers. This market will resolve to “Lakers” if the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Playoffs Conference Semifinals series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers.
> 
> If a partial series is played and not completed by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the 2026 NBA Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x7714…b814` — 154,280.62 shares
- `0x4900…4a72` — 59,524.82 shares
- `0x3349…c0b8` — 20,141.239 shares
- `0x4795…2ae4` — 19,999.961 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 14,999.955 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xb3cf…0ebd` — 50,099.962 shares
- `0xac25…433f` — 50,000 shares
- `0xf28e…cab2` — 50,000 shares
- `0x9267…0f9a` — 49,999.969 shares
- `0x011f…1122` — 19,999.946 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 77 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T14:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T17:59:04.000Z |
| Range | 74¢ → 95¢ |
| Net change | +19.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-playoffs-who-will-win-series-thunder-vs-lakers` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers  — 94% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T20:28:17.812Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-playoffs-who-will-win-series-thunder-vs-lakers.
```

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