# Spread: Spurs (-3.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 04:46:07 GMT. 24h change +45.5pp, 24h volume $181.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-min-2026-05-08-spread-away-3pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-min-2026-05-08-spread-away-3pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T04:46:07.686Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +33.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +45.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $181.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $188.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $655.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 8 at 9:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Spurs" if the Spurs win the game by 4 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 73%): Probability moved up 45.5pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 17,594.486 shares
- `0xfc25…1f7f` — 16,559.42 shares
- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 15,662.23 shares
- `0xe193…cc85` — 8,999.991 shares
- `0xaca2…b9a1` — 5,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 16,579.361 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 16,256.989 shares
- `0x39d3…9ef0` — 14,417.959 shares
- `0xbddf…c684` — 13,873.145 shares
- `0x1bc8…2f68` — 7,284 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 49 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T05:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T04:46:05.000Z |
| Range | 51¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +49.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-sas-min-2026-05-08-spread-away-3pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Spurs (-3.5) — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T04:46:07.686Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-min-2026-05-08-spread-away-3pt5.
```

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