# Spread: Spurs (-4.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 56% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 03:27:14 GMT. 24h change +5.0pp, 24h volume $748.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-min-2026-05-08-spread-away-4pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-min-2026-05-08-spread-away-4pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T03:27:14.608Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **56¢** (56%) |
| Δ 1h | +9.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +5.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $748.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $752.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $72.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 8 at 9:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Spurs" if the Spurs win the game by 5 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 78%): Probability moved up 5.0pp in 24h with 10.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4924…3782` — 201,891.34 shares
- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 87,465.73 shares
- `0x0979…8d9b` — 20,755.03 shares
- `0x4d6e…5cfd` — 20,445.869 shares
- `0xb0da…f3f0` — 19,999.989 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbddf…c684` — 269,819.615 shares
- `0x2302…d6d2` — 35,897.61 shares
- `0x3dfb…abaf` — 35,000 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 12,999.93 shares
- `0x1b4d…e246` — 12,254.86 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 37 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T16:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T03:25:06.000Z |
| Range | 46¢ → 70¢ |
| Net change | +7.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-sas-min-2026-05-08-spread-away-4pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Spurs (-4.5) — 56% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T03:27:14.608Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-min-2026-05-08-spread-away-4pt5.
```

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