# Spread: Spurs (-4.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 53% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 13:05:22 GMT. 24h change +3.0pp, 24h volume $199.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-min-2026-05-10-spread-away-4pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-min-2026-05-10-spread-away-4pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T13:05:22.532Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **53¢** (53%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $199.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $199.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $525.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 10 at 7:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Spurs" if the Spurs win the game by 5 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 50%): Probability moved up 3.0pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 10h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 74,477.375 shares
- `0xa2cc…0cbc` — 49,514.28 shares
- `0x163e…dc5b` — 39,999.806 shares
- `0xbd14…d62a` — 19,607.843 shares
- `0x4667…cab0` — 7,872.44 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3dfb…abaf` — 94,443.961 shares
- `0xd106…c79c` — 15,080.956 shares
- `0x21f3…35e3` — 13,623.583 shares
- `0xb2fe…7558` — 8,510 shares
- `0xece6…c4bf` — 5,728 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 29 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T10:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T13:05:07.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | +3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-sas-min-2026-05-10-spread-away-4pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Spurs (-4.5) — 53% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T13:05:22.532Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-min-2026-05-10-spread-away-4pt5.
```

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