# Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 03:45:32 GMT. 24h change -33.5pp, 24h volume $246.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-20-spread-home-11pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-20-spread-home-11pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T03:45:32.760Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -15.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -33.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $246.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $249.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $598.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 20 at 8:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 12 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Spurs".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 75%): Probability moved down 33.5pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x777d…5143` — 46,755.366 shares
- `0x32cc…68b3` — 9,830.823 shares
- `0x86fb…03d4` — 9,803.922 shares
- `0x2003…af6f` — 4,963.75 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 3,415.892 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 31,546.723 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 18,624.27 shares
- `0x92b5…fec6` — 11,994.04 shares
- `0x32ed…f960` — 9,570.897 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 4,067.525 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 15 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T02:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T15:15:06.000Z |
| Range | 33¢ → 35¢ |
| Net change | -1.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-sas-okc-2026-05-20-spread-home-11pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-11.5) — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T03:45:32.760Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-20-spread-home-11pt5.
```

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