# Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 53% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 20 May 2026 20:51:00 GMT. 24h change +3.0pp, 24h volume $519.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-20-spread-home-6pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-20-spread-home-6pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-20T20:51:00.622Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **53¢** (53%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $519.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $527.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.2M |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 20 at 8:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 7 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Spurs".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 51%): Probability moved up 3.0pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 4h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 166,786.49 shares
- `0xa2cc…0cbc` — 91,217.952 shares
- `0x3dfb…abaf` — 76,665 shares
- `0xbd14…d62a` — 60,000 shares
- `0x5d1d…afd2` — 56,242 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xf031…c80c` — 285,000 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 99,999.852 shares
- `0xe72b…b0a0` — 70,099.972 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 59,999.962 shares
- `0xbddf…c684` — 34,445.381 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 34 |
| Window start | 2026-05-19T05:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T13:48:07.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | +3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-sas-okc-2026-05-20-spread-home-6pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-6.5) — 53% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-20T20:51:00.622Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-20-spread-home-6pt5.
```

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