# Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 63% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 01:40:07 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $249.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-20-spread-home-7pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-20-spread-home-7pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T01:40:07.429Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **63¢** (63%) |
| Δ 1h | +12.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $249.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $249.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $27.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 20 at 8:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 8 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Spurs".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 01:38 UTC | `0xd3e1…0e6b` | BUY | THUNDER | $7.50 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xd106…c79c` — 65,222.828 shares
- `0x84db…aeeb` — 29,211.61 shares
- `0x27f7…44b0` — 26,469 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 13,672.82 shares
- `0xa080…234f` — 9,715.96 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 87,609.101 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 20,000 shares
- `0xf689…9d83` — 20,000 shares
- `0xd202…8973` — 16,543 shares
- `0x198f…c419` — 16,007.531 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 9 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T18:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T01:37:04.000Z |
| Range | 41¢ → 63¢ |
| Net change | +14.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-sas-okc-2026-05-20-spread-home-7pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-7.5) — 63% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T01:40:07.429Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-20-spread-home-7pt5.
```

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