# Spread: Thunder (-2.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 56% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 23:55:02 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $596.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26-spread-home-2pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26-spread-home-2pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T23:55:02.233Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **56¢** (56%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $596.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $596.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.0M |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 26 at 8:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 3 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Spurs".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 1h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 355,893.317 shares
- `0x6211…b89e` — 181,819 shares
- `0x72d8…5213` — 180,000 shares
- `0x2c33…0563` — 145,906.882 shares
- `0x2d7b…e2ce` — 100,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfea3…d227` — 503,982.15 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 280,105.549 shares
- `0xbddf…c684` — 224,999.816 shares
- `0x4df3…788f` — 6,826 shares
- `0x67b6…00bc` — 6,075.598 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 23 |
| Window start | 2026-05-26T02:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T23:29:04.000Z |
| Range | 55¢ → 57¢ |
| Net change | -2.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26-spread-home-2pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-2.5) — 56% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T23:55:02.233Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26-spread-home-2pt5.
```

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