# Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 47% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 00:50:26 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $375.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26-spread-home-4pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26-spread-home-4pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T00:50:26.456Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **47¢** (47%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $375.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $375.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $189.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 26 at 8:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 5 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Spurs".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 127,393.851 shares
- `0x84cb…28ad` — 54,974.521 shares
- `0xc58d…9373` — 43,292.097 shares
- `0x6211…b89e` — 43,055.039 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 17,339.317 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x84cf…2f63` — 94,158.58 shares
- `0x2c33…0563` — 93,741.737 shares
- `0xd202…8973` — 34,344 shares
- `0x92b5…fec6` — 17,312.415 shares
- `0xd106…c79c` — 14,276.82 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 11 |
| Window start | 2026-05-26T15:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-27T00:47:03.000Z |
| Range | 39¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -11.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26-spread-home-4pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-4.5) — 47% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T00:50:26.456Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26-spread-home-4pt5.
```

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