# Spread: Thunder (-5.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 44% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 23:55:50 GMT. 24h change -6.0pp, 24h volume $309.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26-spread-home-5pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26-spread-home-5pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T23:55:50.220Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **44¢** (44%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -6.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $309.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $335.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $656.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 26 at 8:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 6 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Spurs".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 1h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbddf…c684` — 46,943.807 shares
- `0x84db…aeeb` — 43,884.933 shares
- `0x3dfb…abaf` — 33,332.728 shares
- `0xe907…cff6` — 29,047.147 shares
- `0xbd14…d62a` — 20,408.163 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xdb85…152f` — 48,115.046 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 41,126.91 shares
- `0x2c33…0563` — 30,683.577 shares
- `0x5e6e…be00` — 19,999.952 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 10,435.85 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 45 |
| Window start | 2026-05-25T04:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T23:55:05.000Z |
| Range | 44¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -5.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26-spread-home-5pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-5.5) — 44% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T23:55:50.220Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26-spread-home-5pt5.
```

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