# Spurs vs. Thunder

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 33% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 07:27:17 GMT. 24h change -3.5pp, 24h volume $7.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T07:27:17.734Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **33¢** (33%) |
| Δ 1h | -4.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -3.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $7.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $16.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $48.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 26 at 8:30PM ET:
> If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs".
> If the Thunder win, the market will resolve to "Thunder".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 49%): Probability moved down 3.5pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Expires in 41h.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 07:27 UTC | `Heartfelt-Fig` | BUY | SPURS | $20.00 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x41f4…3eac` — 175,183.77 shares
- `0x5555…2af1` — 57,148.49 shares
- `0xdb75…0252` — 10,778.76 shares
- `0x8000…3a21` — 5,000 shares
- `0x2dc4…0c92` — 4,429.54 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x84db…aeeb` — 135,000 shares
- `0x5523…51e9` — 30,524.439 shares
- `0xdb25…eb12` — 13,517.108 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 11,255.29 shares
- `0xe4fc…8af7` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 97 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T05:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T04:26:04.000Z |
| Range | 26¢ → 61¢ |
| Net change | -11.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spurs vs. Thunder — 33% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T07:27:17.734Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-sas-okc-2026-05-26.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*