# Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 47% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 00:20:05 GMT. 24h change -5.5pp, 24h volume $193.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03-spread-home-7pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03-spread-home-7pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T00:20:05.051Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **47¢** (47%) |
| Δ 1h | -7.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -5.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $193.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $193.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $28.6K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 3 at 12:00 AM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Cavaliers" if the Cavaliers win the game by 8 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Raptors". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Raptors".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 79%): Probability moved down 5.5pp in 24h with 6.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xabb8…bba3` — 55,000 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 53,839.099 shares
- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 20,065.002 shares
- `0x1ba1…1ce4` — 10,000 shares
- `0x3a51…b2b6` — 7,999.99 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfbf3…b218` — 54,300.057 shares
- `0x4852…67c4` — 26,126.087 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 15,243.972 shares
- `0x39d3…9ef0` — 13,875 shares
- `0x4df3…788f` — 9,746 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 46 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T04:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T00:19:04.000Z |
| Range | 37¢ → 55¢ |
| Net change | -14.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03-spread-home-7pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5) — 47% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T00:20:05.051Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03-spread-home-7pt5.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*