# Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 50% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 19:12:46 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $383.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03-spread-home-8pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03-spread-home-8pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T19:12:46.432Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **50¢** (50%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $383.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $405.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $248.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 3 at 12:00 AM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Cavaliers" if the Cavaliers win the game by 9 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Raptors". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Raptors".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 157,376.142 shares
- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 120,097.326 shares
- `0xbd14…d62a` — 20,200.627 shares
- `0x27f7…44b0` — 18,607 shares
- `0x4df3…788f` — 11,591.294 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xb6d6…be17` — 173,538.973 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 36,014.48 shares
- `0xdb85…152f` — 19,607.843 shares
- `0x842a…7422` — 12,039.04 shares
- `0x8a84…8606` — 9,244 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 38 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T07:00:25.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T19:12:23.000Z |
| Range | 47¢ → 51¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03-spread-home-8pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) — 50% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T19:12:46.432Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03-spread-home-8pt5.
```

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