# Raptors vs. Cavaliers

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 28% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:04:28 GMT. 24h change -15.0pp, 24h volume $235.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:04:28.905Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **28¢** (28%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -15.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $235.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $243.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $186.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 3 at 12:00AM ET:
> If the Raptors win, the market will resolve to "Raptors".
> If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **divergence** (confidence 52%): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.0pp vs. 24h -15.0pp.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Expires in 7h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc8ec…e8f1` — 144,469.722 shares
- `0xa87d…e4bf` — 9,999.983 shares
- `0xf176…91d0` — 7,616.269 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 3,355.59 shares
- `0x41b4…de82` — 2,999.958 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xd218…b5c9` — 48,999.997 shares
- `0x0767…36b0` — 23,588.13 shares
- `0x3eeb…c387` — 19,999.995 shares
- `0x6d3c…d294` — 15,785.952 shares
- `0xfc25…1f7f` — 10,647.879 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 136 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T05:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T20:40:07.000Z |
| Range | 27¢ → 52¢ |
| Net change | -24.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Raptors vs. Cavaliers — 28% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:04:28.905Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-tor-cle-2026-05-03.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*