# Ducks vs. Golden Knights

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 40% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 02:11:00 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $260.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nhl-ana-las-2026-05-04
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nhl-ana-las-2026-05-04
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T02:11:00.344Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **40¢** (40%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $260.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $261.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $46.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nhl.com/scores

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for May 4 at 9:30PM ET:
> If the Ducks win, the market will resolve to "Ducks".
> If the Golden Knights win, the market will resolve to "Golden Knights".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m ago | `0x4ed2…9d7a` | BUY | GOLDEN KNIGHTS | $5.97 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1117…3532` — 34,350.259 shares
- `0x5257…3e2a` — 20,000 shares
- `0xc6b1…78fd` — 15,000 shares
- `0x1467…4372` — 13,126.095 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 12,791.796 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xabb8…bba3` — 65,000 shares
- `0x03e8…1697` — 56,581.472 shares
- `0xaa07…2125` — 23,329.54 shares
- `0xa7df…5eee` — 9,999.803 shares
- `0xfb68…a240` — 9,426.23 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 35 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T16:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T02:00:08.000Z |
| Range | 39¢ → 40¢ |
| Net change | -0.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nhl-ana-las-2026-05-04` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Ducks vs. Golden Knights — 40% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T02:11:00.344Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nhl-ana-las-2026-05-04.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*