# Sabres vs. Canadiens

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 43% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 19:02:11 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $209.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nhl-buf-mon-2026-05-12
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nhl-buf-mon-2026-05-12
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T19:02:11.883Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **43¢** (43%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $209.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $232.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $354.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nhl.com/scores

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for May 12 at 7:00PM ET:
> If the Sabres win, the market will resolve to "Sabres".
> If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to "Canadiens".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Expires in 4h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbd14…d62a` — 46,081.249 shares
- `0xb6be…fcfe` — 17,983.368 shares
- `0x4f29…7a7e` — 11,627.9 shares
- `0x6d3c…d294` — 8,999.756 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 8,059.46 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc807…c12b` — 74,208.717 shares
- `0x3e04…564d` — 9,265.821 shares
- `0xa1d7…a70c` — 9,000 shares
- `0x07aa…deb1` — 6,154.996 shares
- `0x3010…2317` — 5,248.893 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 101 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T16:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T19:01:04.000Z |
| Range | 43¢ → 51¢ |
| Net change | -7.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nhl-buf-mon-2026-05-12` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Sabres vs. Canadiens — 43% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T19:02:11.883Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nhl-buf-mon-2026-05-12.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*