# Avalanche vs. Wild

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 56% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 18:43:38 GMT. 24h change +3.0pp, 24h volume $402.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nhl-col-min-2026-05-11
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nhl-col-min-2026-05-11
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T18:43:38.136Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **56¢** (56%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $402.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $402.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $289.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nhl.com/scores

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for May 11 at 8:00PM ET:
> If the Avalanche win, the market will resolve to "Avalanche".
> If the Wild win, the market will resolve to "Wild".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Expires in 5h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc807…c12b` — 215,905.19 shares
- `0xeb8e…34ce` — 29,999.841 shares
- `0x3625…1187` — 27,272.727 shares
- `0xf152…64aa` — 5,000 shares
- `0xbad2…5296` — 4,068.128 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5bec…b215` — 220,744.241 shares
- `0x4f29…7a7e` — 11,363.63 shares
- `0xef62…cf76` — 8,504.545 shares
- `0x6195…b9e3` — 4,751 shares
- `0x6d3c…d294` — 4,499.94 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 28 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T16:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T18:42:05.000Z |
| Range | 53¢ → 56¢ |
| Net change | +3.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nhl-col-min-2026-05-11` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Avalanche vs. Wild — 56% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T18:43:38.136Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nhl-col-min-2026-05-11.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*