# Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 03:39:15 GMT. 24h change +57.5pp, 24h volume $153.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nhl-min-col-2026-05-05-spread-home-1pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nhl-min-col-2026-05-05-spread-home-1pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T03:39:15.801Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +24.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +57.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $153.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $154.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $323.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nhl.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the NHL game, scheduled for May 5 at 9:00 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Avalanche" if the Avalanche win the game by 2 or more goals.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wild".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 76%): Probability moved up 57.5pp in 24h with 0.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 70%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6a72…33ee` — 60,587.926 shares
- `0x5d1d…afd2` — 11,123.558 shares
- `0x6815…9edb` — 11,123.558 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 10,337.433 shares
- `0x2302…d6d2` — 8,296.674 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x47a8…52f9` — 63,999.999 shares
- `0x3b5c…126e` — 39,999.888 shares
- `0x1467…4372` — 17,241.379 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 6,318.497 shares
- `0xde04…fa37` — 2,842.05 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 84 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T17:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T03:17:03.000Z |
| Range | 42¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nhl-min-col-2026-05-05-spread-home-1pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T03:39:15.801Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nhl-min-col-2026-05-05-spread-home-1pt5.
```

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