# Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 10% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 00:20:05 GMT. 24h change -30.0pp, 24h volume $660.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nhl-mon-tb-2026-05-03-total-5pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nhl-mon-tb-2026-05-03-total-5pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T00:20:05.876Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **10¢** (10%) |
| Δ 1h | -9.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -30.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $660.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $661.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $8.9K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nhl.com/scores

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for May 3 at 6:00 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Over" if the Canadiens and Lightning combine to score 6 or more goals in this game.
> 
> If the combined total is less than 6, this market will resolve to "Under".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4bff…fc26` — 482,641.393 shares
- `0x5bec…b215` — 35,326.248 shares
- `0xf5e1…5ad0` — 12,965.1 shares
- `0x39d3…9ef0` — 6,520 shares
- `0x6b88…9856` — 4,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 185,868.031 shares
- `0xe3c9…4b9c` — 128,041.013 shares
- `0xb6d6…be17` — 51,874.746 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 49,746.33 shares
- `0xefc9…b337` — 29,999.976 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 34 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T16:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T00:18:06.000Z |
| Range | 10¢ → 44¢ |
| Net change | -34.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nhl-mon-tb-2026-05-03-total-5pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 — 10% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T00:20:05.876Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nhl-mon-tb-2026-05-03-total-5pt5.
```

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