# Canadiens vs. Lightning

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 40% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 16:22:14 GMT. 24h change -2.0pp, 24h volume $212.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nhl-mon-tb-2026-05-03
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nhl-mon-tb-2026-05-03
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T16:22:14.006Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **40¢** (40%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $212.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $232.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $277.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nhl.com/scores

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for May 3 at 6:00PM ET:
> If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to "Canadiens".
> If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Expires in 6h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdd92…6b2a` — 61,291.068 shares
- `0xaa07…2125` — 50,000 shares
- `0x3e04…564d` — 21,999.99 shares
- `0xe405…c67e` — 14,999.66 shares
- `0x07aa…deb1` — 13,352.125 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa710…23c4` — 170,598.02 shares
- `0xe3c9…4b9c` — 20,149.234 shares
- `0x6a32…0086` — 14,999.127 shares
- `0xd100…853d` — 12,296.065 shares
- `0xe9ac…8de4` — 1,475.885 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 26 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T16:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T16:21:05.000Z |
| Range | 40¢ → 43¢ |
| Net change | -3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nhl-mon-tb-2026-05-03` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Canadiens vs. Lightning — 40% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T16:22:14.006Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nhl-mon-tb-2026-05-03.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*