# Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 10:58:34 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $253.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-may-31
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-may-31
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T10:58:34.536Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -1.2pp |
| 24h volume | $253.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $274.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $14.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0f21…3d6e` — 4,545.455 shares
- `0x9cb7…d9b8` — 2,230.544 shares
- `0xe154…0b7f` — 1,537.74 shares
- `0x2c41…133e` — 1,521 shares
- `0xbefa…300d` — 1,100 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9351…9e4d` — 13,852.156 shares
- `0x4baf…5fdf` — 4,366.075 shares
- `0x24c8…23e1` — 1,111 shares
- `0x69ea…15cd` — 970.322 shares
- `0x836f…906e` — 711.69 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T11:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T10:58:06.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 5¢ |
| Net change | -1.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-may-31` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T10:58:34.536Z from https://orrery.me/markets/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-may-31.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*