# Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 73% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 23:21:48 GMT. 24h change +32.3pp, 24h volume $170.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-may-31
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-may-31
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T23:21:48.335Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **73¢** (73%) |
| Δ 1h | -4.2pp |
| Δ 24h | +32.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $170.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $171.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $17.1K |
| Spread | 1.60pp |
| UMA status | `disputed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `disputed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
> 
> If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
> 

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3m ago | `Gorgeous-Coffin` | BUY | NO | $65.09 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x7b34…294c` — 18,500 shares
- `0x4773…2289` — 12,264.579 shares
- `0x9453…1a48` — 3,081.196 shares
- `0xbe5f…b247` — 2,964.07 shares
- `0xb51b…b4d9` — 2,833.272 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbacd…ab35` — 22,541.704 shares
- `0x49b6…170c` — 6,764.85 shares
- `0xdf17…97d1` — 6,601.554 shares
- `0x7d58…cfcc` — 3,599.985 shares
- `0x5a22…17a6` — 2,446.738 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 52 |
| Window start | 2026-04-30T20:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T23:20:04.000Z |
| Range | 23¢ → 97¢ |
| Net change | +23.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-may-31` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? — 73% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T23:21:48.335Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-may-31.
```

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