# Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 11% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 21:24:02 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $430.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T21:24:02.841Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **11¢** (11%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +3.0pp |
| 24h volume | $430.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $7.9M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $343.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
> 
> If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
> 
> Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
> 
> Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
> 
> A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
> 
> This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9648…6825` — 395,500.077 shares
- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 319,769.913 shares
- `0xa53e…218d` — 203,806.737 shares
- `0xd93c…689c` — 141,094.537 shares
- `0xb1a2…372a` — 129,516.19 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2758…a3af` — 241,013.545 shares
- `0xdbad…9c95` — 168,576.771 shares
- `0xe792…ffe4` — 161,187.22 shares
- `0x4bbe…2cf3` — 152,870.56 shares
- `0x8d0c…5839` — 110,693.774 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T22:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T21:23:03.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 14¢ |
| Net change | +3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — 11% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T21:24:02.841Z from https://orrery.me/markets/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026.
```

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