# Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 6% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:07:45 GMT. 24h change -0.1pp, 24h volume $247.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-may-31-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-may-31-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:07:45.950Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **6¢** (6%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.9pp |
| 24h volume | $247.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $2.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $421.5K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
> 
> If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
> 
> Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
> 
> Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
> 
> A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
> 
> This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5d0f…f0ad` — 313,024.631 shares
- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 110,544.54 shares
- `0x152f…a549` — 108,835.692 shares
- `0x9648…6825` — 97,818.686 shares
- `0x73e2…13c3` — 55,934.676 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe792…ffe4` — 130,840.38 shares
- `0xb1ca…1705` — 65,688.005 shares
- `0xf2fc…7a15` — 56,419.154 shares
- `0x8b88…5f5e` — 44,744.913 shares
- `0xdfe3…73c4` — 40,294.205 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:07:04.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 9¢ |
| Net change | +1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-may-31-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? — 6% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:07:45.950Z from https://orrery.me/markets/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-may-31-2026.
```

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