# S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 16:21:55 GMT. 24h change +44.5pp, 24h volume $251.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/spx-opens-up-or-down-on-may-6-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/spx-opens-up-or-down-on-may-6-2026
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T16:21:55.690Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +44.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $251.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $251.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $44.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on May 6 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on May 6 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
> 
> E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
> 
> If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
> 
> If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
> 
> If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".
> 
> US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
> EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea
> ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 4h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1295…5cfd` — 88,621.24 shares
- `0x57de…cd90` — 32,539 shares
- `0x94bd…6184` — 11,000 shares
- `0xe617…f251` — 8,127.689 shares
- `0x8bc8…97dc` — 8,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe907…cff6` — 120,000 shares
- `0xe5f0…dc1d` — 22,071.833 shares
- `0x8188…0667` — 6,612.609 shares
- `0x3bbd…508d` — 3,454.984 shares
- `0xbefa…300d` — 3,300.005 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 29 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T13:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T16:03:04.000Z |
| Range | 55¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +45.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=spx-opens-up-or-down-on-may-6-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T16:21:55.690Z from https://orrery.me/markets/spx-opens-up-or-down-on-may-6-2026.
```

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