# S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 21:43:11 GMT. 24h change -46.9pp, 24h volume $228.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/spx-up-or-down-on-may-12-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/spx-up-or-down-on-may-12-2026
**Category:** Macro
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T21:43:11.000Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -46.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $228.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $228.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $69.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
> 
> E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
> 
> If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
> 
> If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
> 
> If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".
> 
> US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
> EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea 
> ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5711…2f81` — 26,660.914 shares
- `0xe157…51eb` — 16,400.381 shares
- `0xeadf…26ef` — 13,799.964 shares
- `0xe5f0…dc1d` — 13,004.976 shares
- `0x15fb…252d` — 9,677.422 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xdefe…17f4` — 49,803.961 shares
- `0x969f…4d55` — 18,505.707 shares
- `0xdb59…0f16` — 11,000.19 shares
- `0x3b34…cca8` — 8,966.101 shares
- `0xe617…f251` — 7,027.509 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 34 |
| Window start | 2026-05-11T13:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T21:43:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 62¢ |
| Net change | -50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=spx-up-or-down-on-may-12-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T21:43:11.000Z from https://orrery.me/markets/spx-up-or-down-on-may-12-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*