# S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 45% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 17:52:57 GMT. 24h change -6.0pp, 24h volume $86.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/spx-up-or-down-on-may-4-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/spx-up-or-down-on-may-4-2026
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T17:52:57.004Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **45¢** (45%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -6.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $86.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $86.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $2.9K |
| Spread | 5.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, May 4, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, May 4, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
> 
> E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
> 
> If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
> 
> If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
> 
> If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".
> 
> US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
> EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea 
> ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 2h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9f3c…d862` — 18,076.361 shares
- `0xdefe…17f4` — 17,503.667 shares
- `0x38d8…ea7c` — 2,380.99 shares
- `0x7e36…29fb` — 1,667.072 shares
- `0x264c…baca` — 1,198.31 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x969f…4d55` — 16,085.065 shares
- `0x6b08…bb8e` — 7,506.05 shares
- `0x6614…86a4` — 6,726.72 shares
- `0x5466…0247` — 2,850 shares
- `0xd01f…ce7a` — 2,370.707 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 77 |
| Window start | 2026-05-01T13:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T17:51:05.000Z |
| Range | 5¢ → 66¢ |
| Net change | -43.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=spx-up-or-down-on-may-4-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4? — 45% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T17:52:57.004Z from https://orrery.me/markets/spx-up-or-down-on-may-4-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*