# Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 74% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 11:52:48 GMT. 24h change +8.0pp, 24h volume $276.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/starmer-out-by-december-31-2026-936-416-977-234-134
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/starmer-out-by-december-31-2026-936-416-977-234-134
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T11:52:48.158Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **74¢** (74%) |
| Δ 1h | -5.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +8.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +5.0pp |
| 24h volume | $276.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.8M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $36.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x8c92…ebd9` — 33,440.956 shares
- `0x85b8…6b6a` — 28,683.889 shares
- `0xdbf7…fbea` — 25,478.883 shares
- `0x9826…e7fe` — 24,712.365 shares
- `0x93fb…3e4a` — 23,687.67 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9648…6825` — 53,455.409 shares
- `0xce61…9381` — 34,314.574 shares
- `0x63d4…a2f1` — 20,034.299 shares
- `0xb749…2a64` — 19,119.087 shares
- `0x4478…02a4` — 15,000.001 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T12:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T11:51:04.000Z |
| Range | 48¢ → 86¢ |
| Net change | +5.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=starmer-out-by-december-31-2026-936-416-977-234-134` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Starmer out by December 31, 2026? — 74% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T11:52:48.158Z from https://orrery.me/markets/starmer-out-by-december-31-2026-936-416-977-234-134.
```

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