# Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 35% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 18:24:31 GMT. 24h change -12.0pp, 24h volume $264.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548-219
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548-219
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T18:24:31.340Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **35¢** (35%) |
| Δ 1h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -12.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -4.0pp |
| 24h volume | $264.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $3.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $48.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 12.0pp in 24h with 5.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x93fb…3e4a` — 30,324.967 shares
- `0x9d84…1344` — 29,905.513 shares
- `0x850d…aae1` — 28,649.403 shares
- `0x8a4c…532b` — 22,317.239 shares
- `0x17ed…c087` — 15,476.093 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xd21f…e03f` — 45,844.678 shares
- `0x63d4…a2f1` — 32,626.851 shares
- `0xb749…2a64` — 24,936.27 shares
- `0xf1fc…0ec1` — 23,128.909 shares
- `0xf636…b088` — 16,349.103 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T19:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T18:23:09.000Z |
| Range | 18¢ → 74¢ |
| Net change | -3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548-219` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Starmer out by June 30, 2026? — 35% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T18:24:31.340Z from https://orrery.me/markets/starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548-219.
```

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