# Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 3% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 03:24:09 GMT. 24h change -9.8pp, 24h volume $165.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/starmer-out-by-may-15-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/starmer-out-by-may-15-2026
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T03:24:09.362Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **3¢** (3%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -9.8pp |
| Δ 1w | -8.2pp |
| 24h volume | $165.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $78.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3m ago | `Wee-Mangrove` | BUY | NO | $1.00 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1c12…79d9` — 70,638.712 shares
- `0x9648…6825` — 67,836.334 shares
- `0x43ca…0eba` — 15,613.006 shares
- `0xfcb5…68bc` — 15,589.501 shares
- `0x1fe4…afbb` — 12,506.097 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbf93…2fd7` — 53,649.14 shares
- `0x9d84…1344` — 22,796.524 shares
- `0x000d…758e` — 13,610.84 shares
- `0xcb89…a2e8` — 13,177.177 shares
- `0xa30e…49d5` — 10,530.88 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T04:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T03:23:08.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 16¢ |
| Net change | -8.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=starmer-out-by-may-15-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Starmer out by May 15, 2026? — 3% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T03:24:09.362Z from https://orrery.me/markets/starmer-out-by-may-15-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*