# Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 11% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 23:43:38 GMT. 24h change +8.3pp, 24h volume $290.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/starmer-out-by-may-19-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/starmer-out-by-may-19-2026
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T23:43:38.705Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **11¢** (11%) |
| Δ 1h | +3.2pp |
| Δ 24h | +8.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $290.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $593.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $43.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and May 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 89%): Probability moved up 8.3pp in 24h with 6.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 60h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9d84…1344` — 71,760.809 shares
- `0x5ccf…79d7` — 15,678.834 shares
- `0x2c39…56dc` — 14,999.929 shares
- `0x542a…a81b` — 13,035.58 shares
- `0x4344…f90d` — 12,782.95 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xef9b…d5ed` — 30,128.38 shares
- `0x5a7b…e9eb` — 16,550.83 shares
- `0x000d…758e` — 16,544.417 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 11,999.987 shares
- `0x32b8…8927` — 10,865.537 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 79 |
| Window start | 2026-05-13T17:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T23:42:08.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 17¢ |
| Net change | -4.6pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=starmer-out-by-may-19-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Starmer out by May 19, 2026? — 11% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T23:43:38.705Z from https://orrery.me/markets/starmer-out-by-may-19-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*