# Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 46% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:08:33 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $44.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:08:33.641Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **46¢** (46%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -15.0pp |
| 24h volume | $44.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.5M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $212.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
> 
> This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
> 
> Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xcf19…6402` — 65,095.638 shares
- `0x162f…798d` — 54,852.405 shares
- `0x4f75…af7e` — 43,525.439 shares
- `0xe738…df65` — 35,317.585 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 28,324.138 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xf1bf…11d7` — 89,297.468 shares
- `0x9648…6825` — 53,095.748 shares
- `0xa022…77f8` — 40,480.552 shares
- `0xf661…2259` — 35,999.954 shares
- `0x1a3f…6dea` — 30,330.315 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:17.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:08:04.000Z |
| Range | 45¢ → 62¢ |
| Net change | -11.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — 46% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:08:33.641Z from https://orrery.me/markets/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june.
```

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