# Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 21% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 19:37:21 GMT. 24h change +3.5pp, 24h volume $192.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T19:37:21.143Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **21¢** (21%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $192.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $219.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $33.7K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
> 
> This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
> 
> Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 72%): Probability moved up 3.5pp in 24h with 5.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x68c2…1711` — 42,375.533 shares
- `0x4478…02a4` — 41,004.118 shares
- `0x162f…798d` — 26,021.737 shares
- `0x0eaa…c521` — 21,643.185 shares
- `0x5715…1616` — 17,619.059 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x0c0e…434e` — 44,014.986 shares
- `0x8792…4174` — 21,545.821 shares
- `0x41e8…b994` — 19,203.5 shares
- `0x5039…946d` — 15,000.173 shares
- `0x8c66…44f3` — 14,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 35 |
| Window start | 2026-05-26T06:00:16.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-27T15:19:16.000Z |
| Range | 14¢ → 23¢ |
| Net change | -4.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? — 21% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T19:37:21.143Z from https://orrery.me/markets/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*