# Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 12:59:05 GMT. 24h change +91.3pp, 24h volume $501.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files-by-may-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files-by-may-15
**Category:** Science
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T12:59:05.673Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +91.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +69.8pp |
| 24h volume | $501.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $513.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $388.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `disputed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `disputed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components.
> 
> Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count.
> 
> The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x44c1…ebc1` — 95,142.732 shares
- `0x92a6…8b84` — 79,495.254 shares
- `0x9507…7b04` — 59,200.94 shares
- `0x9e80…f694` — 23,986.915 shares
- `0x7804…7025` — 20,897.6 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xdeac…0216` — 126,089.143 shares
- `0x6c29…0b7c` — 86,128.042 shares
- `0xa510…1f80` — 53,919.504 shares
- `0x66dd…1e51` — 21,389.085 shares
- `0x97c7…9719` — 11,666.667 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T13:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T12:58:11.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +69.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files-by-may-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T12:59:05.673Z from https://orrery.me/markets/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files-by-may-15.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*