# Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 2% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 11:13:50 GMT. 24h change -1.3pp, 24h volume $271.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/trump-endorses-chinas-claim-to-taiwan-this-week
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/trump-endorses-chinas-claim-to-taiwan-this-week
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T11:13:50.756Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **2¢** (2%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $271.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $304.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $48.2K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses China’s claim to Taiwan by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> “China’s claim to Taiwan” refers to the position that Taiwan is part of China, that Taiwan should be unified with China, or that the People’s Republic of China has sovereignty over Taiwan.
> 
> Donald Trump will be considered to have endorsed China’s claim to Taiwan if Donald Trump publicly states that he or the United States accepts, recognizes, agrees with, or otherwise supports China’s claim to Taiwan. Statements that merely acknowledge China’s position, refer to the United States’ existing “One China” policy, call for peaceful resolution of China-Taiwan issues, or discuss Taiwan without clearly endorsing China’s claim to Taiwan will not qualify.
> 
> Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of China’s claim to Taiwan.
> 
> Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 61h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4344…f90d` — 7,777 shares
- `0x663d…681c` — 6,000 shares
- `0x05b6…d2e6` — 4,478.186 shares
- `0x0a7a…df1b` — 4,050 shares
- `0x4abe…79dc` — 3,130.76 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x184e…cf96` — 20,227.259 shares
- `0xfaf9…f4c4` — 18,275.482 shares
- `0x3eae…e2ed` — 15,434.914 shares
- `0xf0d5…c665` — 4,584.16 shares
- `0x5109…5e9c` — 3,499.989 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 46 |
| Window start | 2026-05-12T15:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T11:13:05.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 27¢ |
| Net change | -25.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=trump-endorses-chinas-claim-to-taiwan-this-week` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? — 2% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T11:13:50.756Z from https://orrery.me/markets/trump-endorses-chinas-claim-to-taiwan-this-week.
```

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