# Trump kiss by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 65% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 20 May 2026 20:51:00 GMT. 24h change +52.9pp, 24h volume $471.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/trump-kiss-by-may-31
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/trump-kiss-by-may-31
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-20T20:51:00.932Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **65¢** (65%) |
| Δ 1h | -4.7pp |
| Δ 24h | +52.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $471.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $478.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $32.2K |
| Spread | 3.10pp |
| UMA status | `disputed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `disputed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and any other person kiss by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
> 
> Reputable video or photographic evidence of the kiss must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. AI-generated, manipulated, or other non-authentic evidence will not qualify.
> 
> A qualifying kiss is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the lips of one individual touching another individual. A qualifying kiss need not be reciprocal; a kiss on the cheek or hand from either party will qualify.
> 
> The resolution source will be reputable photographic/video footage of a kiss.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 35%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2785…70ae` — 2,776,150.13 shares
- `0x02e7…59e5` — 1,999,998 shares
- `0x24c8…23e1` — 333,333 shares
- `0x9507…7b04` — 219,675.65 shares
- `0x1295…5cfd` — 100,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x558e…2ee7` — 4,044,588.47 shares
- `0x1f2a…58af` — 213,999.936 shares
- `0x4a2b…af20` — 200,000.005 shares
- `0xc3e6…590f` — 122,820.914 shares
- `0xeff3…f411` — 70,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 114 |
| Window start | 2026-05-15T21:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T13:06:04.000Z |
| Range | 10¢ → 94¢ |
| Net change | +20.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=trump-kiss-by-may-31` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Trump kiss by May 31? — 65% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-20T20:51:00.932Z from https://orrery.me/markets/trump-kiss-by-may-31.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*