# Trump out as President by June 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 2% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 18:30:46 GMT. 24h change -0.5pp, 24h volume $187.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/trump-out-as-president-by-june-30
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-by-june-30
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T18:30:46.605Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **2¢** (2%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -2.1pp |
| 24h volume | $187.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $4.9M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $510.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
> 
> Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
> 
> A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x312e…8604` — 506,250.005 shares
- `0x803d…135d` — 206,391.137 shares
- `0xa61e…0abd` — 152,000.03 shares
- `0xc99c…f913` — 50,086.056 shares
- `0xf406…8f62` — 46,847.286 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xed10…d2e5` — 423,659.364 shares
- `0x8b4b…541b` — 127,133.824 shares
- `0x464e…1a67` — 105,999.74 shares
- `0xfaf9…f4c4` — 89,626.837 shares
- `0x19f1…599e` — 74,891.362 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-30T19:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T18:30:04.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 4¢ |
| Net change | -2.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=trump-out-as-president-by-june-30` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Trump out as President by June 30? — 2% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T18:30:46.605Z from https://orrery.me/markets/trump-out-as-president-by-june-30.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*