# UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 23% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 02:36:39 GMT. 24h change +7.0pp, 24h volume $116.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/uae-x-qatar-sever-diplomatic-relations-in-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/uae-x-qatar-sever-diplomatic-relations-in-2026
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T02:36:39.540Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **23¢** (23%) |
| Δ 1h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +7.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $116.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $234.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $38.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Qatar formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 85%): Probability moved up 7.0pp in 24h with 3.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x842b…b366` — 8,387.48 shares
- `0xa951…8a2f` — 906.48 shares
- `0xeabe…5910` — 811.243 shares
- `0xbecc…f560` — 785.93 shares
- `0x2c6f…5ddf` — 400 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9e9a…5d99` — 2,894.84 shares
- `0x04cc…48ac` — 2,730 shares
- `0xa667…84fe` — 1,404.85 shares
- `0xb8ad…ff58` — 830 shares
- `0xb454…9b90` — 682.325 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 105 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T18:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T02:35:07.000Z |
| Range | 6¢ → 43¢ |
| Net change | +4.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=uae-x-qatar-sever-diplomatic-relations-in-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? — 23% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T02:36:39.540Z from https://orrery.me/markets/uae-x-qatar-sever-diplomatic-relations-in-2026.
```

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