# Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 23:12:15 GMT. 24h change -27.5pp, 24h volume $156.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ucl-ars-atm1-2026-05-05-total-3pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ucl-ars-atm1-2026-05-05-total-3pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T23:12:15.753Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -27.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -40.5pp |
| 24h volume | $156.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $157.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $581.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://www.uefa.com/

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between Arsenal FC and Club Atlético de Madrid, scheduled for May 5 at 3:00 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Over" if Arsenal FC and Club Atlético de Madrid combine to score 4 or more goals in this game.
> 
> If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50.
> 
> If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x54d2…ac37` — 70,400.322 shares
- `0x325f…4511` — 4,812.812 shares
- `0xe77f…8793` — 2,393.48 shares
- `0x5f37…281b` — 2,293.333 shares
- `0x5b6e…d361` — 2,099.977 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x204f…5e14` — 49,155.043 shares
- `0x0346…52a5` — 8,979.446 shares
- `0x996a…e3cc` — 7,329 shares
- `0xdf43…ae9a` — 4,999.993 shares
- `0xa85b…eb0e` — 3,459.084 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T00:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T23:12:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 41¢ |
| Net change | -40.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ucl-ars-atm1-2026-05-05-total-3pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T23:12:15.753Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ucl-ars-atm1-2026-05-05-total-3pt5.
```

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