# Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 6% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 20:30:46 GMT. 24h change -34.0pp, 24h volume $341.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ucl-bay-psg-2026-05-06-spread-home-1pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ucl-bay-psg-2026-05-06-spread-home-1pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T20:30:46.312Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **6¢** (6%) |
| Δ 1h | -11.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -34.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -30.5pp |
| 24h volume | $341.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $356.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $15.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026

**Source:** https://www.uefa.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for May 6 at 3:00 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "FC Bayern München" if FC Bayern München win the game by 2 or more goals.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Paris Saint-Germain FC".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1496…a429` — 98,830.891 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 35,345.007 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 14,592.477 shares
- `0x2adc…7e50` — 13,824.346 shares
- `0xb7f5…c669` — 4,999.982 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 65,857.315 shares
- `0xb6c4…6678` — 44,556.123 shares
- `0x3102…187c` — 15,000 shares
- `0xf2f6…5817` — 10,831.966 shares
- `0x6815…9edb` — 8,196.721 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T21:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T20:29:04.000Z |
| Range | 4¢ → 42¢ |
| Net change | -32.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ucl-bay-psg-2026-05-06-spread-home-1pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) — 6% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T20:30:46.312Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ucl-bay-psg-2026-05-06-spread-home-1pt5.
```

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