# UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 56% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 23:01:56 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $222.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-ale22-wal2-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ale22-wal2-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T23:01:56.907Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **56¢** (56%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -4.5pp |
| 24h volume | $222.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $296.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $206.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ufc.com/events

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Alexander Volkov" if Alexander Volkov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Waldo Cortes-Acosta at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Waldo Cortes-Acosta" if Waldo Cortes-Acosta is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 5h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x832d…d420` — 37,588.76 shares
- `0xf689…9d83` — 26,315.789 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 22,833.154 shares
- `0x6d04…7a5f` — 22,400 shares
- `0xb31e…c120` — 20,499.836 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9eca…5a59` — 71,014.547 shares
- `0xa710…23c4` — 66,142.212 shares
- `0x8f8c…e275` — 31,497.026 shares
- `0x27f7…44b0` — 16,545 shares
- `0x777d…5143` — 9,184.59 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T00:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T23:00:09.000Z |
| Range | 56¢ → 63¢ |
| Net change | -4.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=ufc-ale22-wal2-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) — 56% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T23:01:56.907Z from https://orrery.me/markets/ufc-ale22-wal2-2026-05-09.
```

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